Friday, December 12, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC  
  • @TheSCIF
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @RenzTom
  • @Real_RobN
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ImBreckWorsham
  • @C_3C_3
  • @ScottJenningsKY
  • @amuse
  • INDIANA REDISTRICTING: Bruesewitz says 21 Indiana Republicans killed a clean redistricting map after promises of cash from the Senate President Rodric Bray and GOP consultants. Democrats win, Trump gets stabbed in the back. Indiana’s mid decade redistricting reform was all but finished: Supreme Court precedent allowed it, the map was clean, and the State House passed it. Then 21 Senate Republicans flipped after consultant Cam Savage of Limestone Strategies allegedly promised campaign funding through Senate President Rodric Bray. Their betrayal delivered a massive victory to Democrats and blocked a map that would have saved control of the House in 2026. Since I know you'll ask, here are the 21 Republican Indiana state senators who voted against the redistricting bill (HB 1032): Eric Bassler (R-Washington), Vaneta Becker (R-Evansville), Mike Bohacek (R-Michiana Shores), Rodric Bray (R-Martinsville), Brian Buchanan (R-Lebanon), Jim Buck (R-Kokomo), Ed Charbonneau (R-Valparaiso), Brett Clark (R-Avon), Mike Crider (R-Greenfield), Spencer Deery (R-West Lafayette), Dan Dernulc (R-Highland), Blake Doriot (R-Goshen), Sue Glick (R-LaGrange), Greg Goode (R-Terre Haute), Travis Holdman (R-Markle), Jean Leising (R-Oldenburg), Ryan Mishler (R-Mishawaka), Rick Niemeyer (R-Lowell), Linda Rogers (R-Granger), Kyle Walker (R-Lawrence), Greg Walker (R-Columbus).
  • @JuanOSavin107
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @TonySeruga
  • @KobeissiLetter
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Buildout Worries, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.14 -.12%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.19% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.61% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.3 -9.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +1.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.40 -.04:  Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 22.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.74% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 511.43 +.14: Growth Rate +24.6% unch., P/E 31.6 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 -.2
  • US Yield Curve 66.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.5% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 49.0% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 43.9%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -650 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my consumer financial/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to fall to 9.5 versus 18.7 in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 39.0 versus 38.0 in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Williams speaking and the Northland Virtual Growth Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ  
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @MarioNawful 
  • NATURE JOURNAL RETRACTS MAJOR CLIMATE STUDY THAT CLAIMED $38 TRILLION IN ANNUAL DAMAGE BY 2049. The "science" strikes again. Nature has retracted a highly publicized 2024 climate study from Germany's Potsdam Institute that projected climate change would cause $38 trillion in economic damage annually by 2049 and a 62% reduction in global GDP by 2100. Progressives hyped it relentlessly. Axios called it a study that "shines a new light on the patterns and severity of climate change's economic impacts." It was used to justify electric vehicle mandates and other costly government interventions. One problem: the study was garbage.
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @Wallstengine
  • @TheSCIF
  • We are being governed by a bunch of CRIMINALS. ALL FOOTAGE of pipe bomber allegedly DELETED. By law, there has to be a chain of command log of that video evidence so that information, MUST now be subpoenaed, unless that was destroyed as well. It just never ends ladies and gentlemen. (video)
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • Institutional demand for AI-related stocks is surging: US insurers purchased +$2.4 million of Nvidia, $NVDA, Microsoft, $MSFT, Alphabet, $GOOGL, and Meta, $META, on average per day over the 90 days ending November 30th. Insurers have been net buyers of these names over the last 12 months. In October, the 90-day moving average of net purchases rose to a record +$8.0 million. This is a sharp contrast to 2023 and 2024 when insurers were net sellers of these stocks. Institutional demand for AI stocks is incredibly strong.
  • @disclosetv
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • BREAKING: U.S. House PASSES $900 BILLION "military" spending bill. - Ukraine gets $800M. - Israel gets $692.5M. DID YOU VOTE FOR THIS?
  • @bennyjohnson
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.9 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.15% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.36% -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.42%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.