Monday, January 26, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @GenFlynn
  • @RenzTom
  • @TheSCIF
  • A.I. and computer vision experts found that the 2020 election machine's registrar that scans the ballots to verify the signatures was lowered 60%, which then only required a 40% match to "pass" the ballots on the signature test. They also lowered the standard 200 DPI minimum requirement that scans the ballot far below the 200 DPI minimum requirement. The only reason you would EVER lower the standards to detect fraud is to commit fraud. (video)
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @nicksortor
  • @DataRepublican
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @JakeCan72
  • @DC_Draino
  • Step 1 - Go to China dozens of times and establish connections with communist government. Step 2 - Get elected Governor of Minnesota, import 3rd world immigrants, and use them as money laundering machines. Step 3 - Funnel billions back into Democrat bribes, non-profits, and PACs via straw donors with ActBlue. Step 4 - Get picked as VP candidate as your reward for pumping cash into the Marxist movement. Step 5 - Enact Minnesota Marxist machine across entire country. We thankfully stopped this evil plan at Step 4, exposed their billions in money laundering, and now Tim Walz is using his staff to organize violent riots across the state to distract. When he’s indicted, he will say it’s just political retribution for the ICE protests. Marxists never give up when they’re caught. They just get more violent.
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @CynicalPublius
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @C_3C_3
  • @GoodAMLiberty
  • This month, Republicans have: -Continued Biden's Covid Era Kill Switch for new vehicles. (This will be used against you) - Fully funded the Education Department ($80B+) and worked with Democrats to prevent Trump from diverting the money to other agencies. But that's not all. + $5B for refugees & asylees- the gateway slush fund for much of the fraud Republicans have complained about. + Continued funding a major censorship agency (CISA). CISA worked with the FBI on censoring Hunter Biden's laptop, and was used to censor Republicans on social media just a few years ago. + Reversed DOGE cuts to censorship and propaganda NGO National Endowment for Democracy (NED) + Reversed DOGE cuts to NIH funding. The list goes on..
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%. 
  • Gold 5,103.3 USD/t oz. -.37%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.15%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.0 +.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.69% +6.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.48%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.8 -.7%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.21 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 124.7 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.0 +.8
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.5 +3.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.7 -8.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -2.3 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(64 of 500 reporting) +17.6% +.5 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.76 +.46:  Growth Rate +16.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.09% -9.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 492.2 +.73: Growth Rate +19.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 +.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 61.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.2 +.84% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.1% +.2 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.21% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 84.1% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 71.9%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -750 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -1.8% 2) Airlines -1.2% 3) Energy -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PAX, RYAAY, PAYC, SVAC, SA, USAU, MNPR, INTC, IONQ, TTD, HCC, GEO, MP, UUUU, BAH, CRVS, CRML, IMSR, FLY, RDW, VELO, RVMD, LPTH and METC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VFC 2) TSCO 3) ARES 4) BAX 5) USAR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TCPC 2) RVMD 3) TMC 4) UAMY 5) CVI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) FXU 3) SMH 4) XLK 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Networking +2.3% 2) Internet +1.8% 3) Cyber Security +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GLSI, USAR, DOCN, PTRN, NET, INMD, ZM, GDS, CRWV, NGL, SRPT, NG, UMC, BNV, EGO, KC, ALM, PSLV, VAL, ARRY, NEXA, SWBI, GME, ANET, SKE, GME, WYFI, BOH, SSRM, ORLA, GFI, GTLB, AXGN, SKYT, BKR, NE, TECK, TEM, MANU, TEAM, AU, CUBI, AG, AAUC, CEPU, EVMN, CEF, DSGN, SFD, SAP, HBM, KGC, MBLY, CEF, RUN, LGN, EXE, CGAU, SKM and  HYMC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) OPTT 2) AR 3) NAK 4) URNM 5) ZM 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) USAR 2) SRPT 3) CRWV 4) INMD 5) BOH
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) FBT 2) GDX 3) XLF 4) REMX 5) XLP
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AAL)/.37
  • (BA)/-.44
  • (CVLT)/.98
  • (HCA)/7.45
  • (JBLU)/-.46
  • (KMB)/1.81
  • (NEE)/.53
  • (NOC)/6.98
  • (PCAR)/1.06
  • (PII)/.04
  • RTX/1.47
  • (SYY)/.98
  • (UNP)/2.86
  • (UNH)/2.10
  • (UPS)/2.20 
  • (GM)/2.25
  • (MRTN)/.03 
After the Close: 
  • (BXP)/1.80
  • (FFIV)/3.66
  • (MANH)/1.13
  • (PPG)/1.58
  • (STX)/2.83
  • (LRN)/2.00
  • (TXN)/1.28
  • (TRMK)/.91 
Economic Release 

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Weekly Employment Change. 

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
  • The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.32% gain in Oct.

10:00 am EST

  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -7.0 in Dec.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence report for Jan. is estimated to rise to 91.0 versus 89.1 in Dec

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to -2.9 versus -3.3 in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The President Trump speech, M2 Money Supply for Dec., weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, (BDX) annual meeting, (HRL) annual meeting and the (V) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -1.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.2 -1.5
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 46.5% of Issues Advancing, 51.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.05 -3.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$87.2M
  • 173 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 69.0% (-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 63.4 -1.1
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 80.0% +52.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 65.0% +2.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.3 -1.3%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 422.0 -.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 266.4 -.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 157.7 +.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (moved to GREED from NEUTRAL) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.2 -40.2%
  • Vix 15.9 -1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%