Monday, June 14, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note

None of note.

Economic Data
Trade Balance for April estimated at -$45.0 billion versus -$46.0 billion in March.
Advance Retail Sales for May estimated +1.2% versus -.5% in April.
Retail Sales Less Autos for May estimated +.6% versus -.1% in April.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on AMD, AGIX, BSX, JNJ and mixed on AZN, AAPL. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on NVS, ABT, SHPGY, LLY, SVM, VZ and mixed on PIR, FCS, BRL, CMCSA. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on PKZ, VIP, NVO, TKC, SIRI and mixed on SEPR, AMZN, RYAAY. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on ACDO, CVD, MNT, CHN, JNJ, ABT, TGT and AGN. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on FON, LU, NT, TXN, AFL, LNC, MET, PRU, TMK, UL, NEM and negative on CXW. Barron's had a positive column on banking stocks. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, PFGC and EMC. Goldman expects JBL and SLR reports this week to support view that enterprise hardware and communications are improving. Goldman thinks VRTSE can trade higher in near-term on a number of catalysts.

Weekend News
Moqtada al-Sadr called on his supporters to end aggression against opponents and the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, NY Times said. Disney President Rober Iger said he would like to succeed Chief Executive Michael Eisner, who has held the role for 19 years, the London-based Times reported. ChevronTexaco's annual oil and gas production fell by about 15% during the past six years while its reported reserves rose 14%, contributing to concerns that the oil industry can't keep pace with demand, the NY Times said. A non-partisan congressional office has concluded that Social Security's shortfall during the next 75 years will be 33% less than originally thought, Bloomberg reported. Fifty of the U.S.'s largest employers have formed a purchasing group to win greater discounts from drugmakers, rather than acquiring medications through pharmacy benefit managers, the NY Times reported. China's central bank is poised to raise interest rates and is waiting for the appropriate time, the Economic Observer reported. Police in the UAE arrested an Indian citizen who offered to sell nuclear secrets to Arab embassies, al-Hayat reported. More companies are granting their executives restricted stock grants, that aren't tied to performance, instead of stock options, the NY Times reported. Government agencies have stepped up efforts to detect radioactive materials in the New York and New Jersey area, the Star-Ledger reported. The number of U.S. companies filing for bankruptcy may fall to a six-year low this year, boosted by increased pricing power and profitability, the Financial Times said. The terror group Hamas said it will continue attacks against Israel even after the nation withdraws from settlements in the Gaza Strip, Haaretz reported. 12 people were killed and thirteen others wounded in an attack on an Iraqi police patrol in the capital, Agence France-Presse reported. Copper prices may rise this week as inventories fall and global demand is forecast to exceed production, Bloomberg reported. Nokia may have to lower its sales forecast for this quarter after price reductions and new models failed to stem a drop in market share, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are falling in New York after a general strike ended in Nigeria without disrupting oil exports, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -2.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.51%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.61%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open lower tomorrow on Middle East violence, rising interest rates and weakness in Asia. I will likely add a few new shorts on any unexpected strength on the open. The Portfolio is market neutral heading into tomorrow.

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