Monday, November 15, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
LOW/.65
TSN/.17

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for November estimated at 20.6 versus 17.43 in October.

Weekend Recommendations
Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on MMM, ADI, BMET and JOE. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on PEI and SPG. Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on ADP, TSN and mixed on BA, HET, CNX, GLW. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on MAR, negative on KMG, MVL and mixed on GPS. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on ZLC, FLR, BAB, HD, AMZN, ACF, INTC and mixed on HAL, CX, MSFT, BBBY, SBUX. Barron's had positive columns on FDO, NOK and CLS. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on EBAY, AMD, ATYT, VLTR, MRVL, BBY and Underperform on AMCC, ELX, MMC, ATG. Banc of America upgraded MHS to Buy. Business Week had a positive column on KMRT.

Weekend News
England will limit a smoking ban to restaurants and pubs that serve food, the Financial Times said. Europe will only grow an average of 2% this year and the pace of economic expansion may rise slightly above 2% in 2005, said a board member of the European Central Bank. More than 1,000 insurgents were killed in a six-day joint U.S. and Iraqi assault to take control of the rebel stronghold of Fallujah in western Iraq, Agence France-Presse reported. The U.S. Pentagon is planning to build its own, secure Internet that will give the military real-time access to war intelligence and satellite imagery worldwide, the NY Times reported. Advanced Micro Devices CEO Hector de Jesus Ruiz expects the market for personal computers to expand by 10% in 2005, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Nicaragua agreed to destroy its entire arsenal of portable antiaircraft missiles, which Pentagon officials say are prized by terrorists, the NY Times reported. U.S. toy retailers, including Toys "R" Us and Wal-Mart have begun dropping prices in a bid to attract more shoppers heading into the holiday season, the Washington Post reported. Schering-Plough has told its 30,500 employees it will resume paying bonuses and end a salary freeze due to its improved financial results, the Star-Ledger reported. Most technology stocks may face a slowdown in consumer and corporate demand for their products next year amid higher interest rates and oil prices, Barron's reported. Saudi Arabia's royal family has warned the U.K. it will not deal with Britain's arms industry again if its members are embarrassed by a fraud inquiry, the Sunday Telegraph reported. Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, a Spanish builder, won a $31 million 10-year contract from the city of Boston to design and manage bus stops, Spanish newspaper ABC reported. Apple Computer faces competition in Britain to its iPod from a device build by Medion AG that will sell in a U.K. supermarket, the Business newspaper reported. U.S. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, who is set to become the Democratic leader in the Senate, takes stands on some issues that are closer to Republicans than most members of his own party, the NY Times reported. Venture capital investments in Silicon Valley companies slid 35% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, the San Jose Mercury News reported today. Palestinian leader Arafat allegedly diverted $2 million a month from gasoline trade in the Palestinian territories, Time magazine reported. Microsoft Chairman Gates wants to dominate the market for digital portable music in which Apple Computer set the standard with the iPod, the NY Times reported. Iran has agreed to a full suspension of uranium enrichment, Agence France-Presse reported. Inco and Phelps Dodge are considering bids for WMC Resources, the Australian Financial Review reported. New Internet-based employment services such as Monster.com may provide better insight into job growth in the U.S. than traditional economic indicators, the NY Times reported. Coca-Cola plans to make China its third-biggest market by 2008, the International Finance News reported. The number of U.S. inmates sentenced to death fell to a 30-year low last year, the AP reported. Global sales of semiconductors will growth 9.6% next year, the Economic Daily reported. China's central bank Governor Xiaochuan said the economy has avoided a hard landing, with monetary indicators returning to normal and growth remaining fast, the China Securities Journal reported. Nearly twice as many companies were subject to shareholder litigation in the third quarter of 2004 than last year, the Financial Times reported. British Prime Minister Blair will use a foreign policy speech to urge Europe to unite with the U.S. under the banner of democracy to defeat global terrorism, the Financial Times said. Dow Jones agreed to buy MarketWatch.com for about $486 million, the NY Times said. California Governor Schwarzenegger and other immigrants should be allowed to run for president, according to tv commercials that will begin airing next week, the LA Times reported. The U.S. and China have the closest relationship in more than 30 years, Secretary of State Colin Powell said. Shipping rates for oil tankers hauling crude from the Middle East to refineries worldwide may rise to records this week because of a lack of vessels for December cargoes, Bloomberg said. De Beers foresees rising prices for diamonds as production falls short of demand, Bloomberg said. China's retail sales rose 14.2% last month at their fastest pace in five months, climbing to a record as rising incomes made cars, cell phones and computers more affordable, Bloomberg reported. Perrigo agreed to buy Israel-based Agis Industries for $818 billion in cash and stock, Bloomberg said. U.S. companies including GM, DuPont and Xerox are cutting carbon dioxide emissions to remain competitive in European countries, Bloomberg reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are higher, +.25% to +1.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on gains in Asia, falling energy prices and short-covering. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

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