Thursday, August 18, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day Even as Oil and Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,219.15 -.11%
DJIA 10,557.26 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,138.94 -.29%
Russell 2000 652.90 -.29%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,138.65 -.14%
S&P Barra Growth 584.43 +.05%
S&P Barra Value 630.28 -.24%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.01 +.39%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 738.68 -.52%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.10 -.71%
Transports 3,713.11 -.33%
Utilities 391.55 +.24%
Put/Call 1.03 -2.83%
NYSE Arms 1.17 +16.96%
Volatility(VIX) 13.39 +.68%
ISE Sentiment 156.00 -.64%
US Dollar 88.59 +.67%
CRB 310.51 -1.01%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.50 -1.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 182.50 -3.49%
Natural Gas 8.88 -5.39%
Heating Oil 176.10 -1.28%
Gold 444.70 -.11%
Base Metals 128.74 +.45%
Copper 165.90 +.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -1.09%

Leading Sectors
Tobacco +1.57%
Broadcasting +.91%
Biotech +.80%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -.87%
Disk Drives -1.22%
Steel -2.29%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Internet, Medical and Retail longs. I added to my existing longs, including GOOG/BRCM/BBY/ISRG/AAPL, this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is negative, considering the decline in energy prices, above-expectations Philly Fed report and decline in long-term rates. The AAII % Bulls fell to 29.29% this week from 39.74% the prior week; this reading is now at depressed levels. Likewise, the % Bears rose to 40.40% from 28.85% the prior week; this is an above-average level. This is a very positive development given the market's recent performance and makes me more confident that another substantial rally will begin over the next 6 weeks. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short covering.

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