Friday, August 19, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day Even as Oil and Rates Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,221.79 +.23%
DJIA 10,589.48 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,138.94 +.13%
Russell 2000 652.82 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,165.93 +.23%
S&P Barra Growth 585.35 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 632.03 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.15 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.91 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.90 +.27%
Transports 3,711.68 +.02%
Utilities 393.94 +.64%
Put/Call 1.14 +14.0%
NYSE Arms .97 -14.21%
Volatility(VIX) 13.11 -2.31%
ISE Sentiment 147.00 -6.96%
US Dollar 88.56 unch.
CRB 314.27 +.81%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.70 +2.34%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.00 +1.45%
Natural Gas 9.10 +1.98%
Heating Oil 183.50 +2.49%
Gold 442.10 -.58%
Base Metals 129.03 +.23%
Copper 161.05 +.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.20% +.27%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.78%
Energy +1.61%
Networking +1.07%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.23%
Tobacco -.41%
Airlines -.46%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Medical and Semiconductor longs. I exited my IWM and QQQQ trading shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is positive, considering the rise in energy prices and long-term rates. Earlier today on CNBC, T. Boone Pickens said he is keeping a very close eye on fourth-quarter oil demand. This is what I hear almost every energy trader say. I continue to believe 4Q U.S. and Chinese oil demand growth estimates are substantially too high. As terrorism and hurricane fears peak in September and it becomes glaringly obvious that oil supplies are overwhelming demand, an accelerated downward move in energy prices should occur as traders "sell the news." I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short covering.

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