Thursday, November 03, 2005

Stocks Finish Higher on Heavy Volume Even as Oil and Rates Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,219.94 +.43%
DJIA 10,522.59 +.48%
NASDAQ 2,160.22 +.74%
Russell 2000 658.77 +.26%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,195.25 +.42%
S&P Barra Growth 583.81 +.74%
S&P Barra Value 631.90 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.42 +.26%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 732.98 +.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 509.01 +.80%
Transports 3,973.44 +1.16%
Utilities 394.22 +.31%
Put/Call .91 +33.82%
NYSE Arms .80 +16.44%
Volatility(VIX) 13.00 -3.56%
ISE Sentiment 159.00 -10.17%
US Dollar 90.42 +.78%
CRB 321.29 1.53%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.75 -.05%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.47 -.13%
Natural Gas 11.66 -.25%
Heating Oil 183.25 -.06%
Gold 462.30 +.09%
Base Metals 135.50 +.58%
Copper 182.20 -.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.64% +.98%

Leading Sectors
Computer Hardware +2.14%
Biotech +2.04%
Energy +1.93%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -.95%
Telecom -1.36%
Gold & Silver -1.57%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DIS and GE.
- Reiterated Underperform on MKL and CSC.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US military may have to cut at least $32 billion from its planned spending through 2011, the Pentagon’s No.2 civilian warned military service chiefs.
- The US government in June will begin letting air travelers move more quickly through airport security checkpoints if they successfully complete a background check beforehand.
- The US Senate is nearing approval of a package of about $36 billion in spending cuts as part of a Republican-led effort to reduce the budget deficit.
- US Treasuries fell, pushing the 10-year note yields to the highest since June of last year, after a report showed the biggest part of the economy in October was stronger than forecast.
- Crude oil and heating oil surged on light volume from three-month lows as traders covered short positions in the commodities.

Financial Times:
- The European Union’s “faltering” economic reforms are raising concern among European CEOs, citing Conference Board Chief Economist Fosler.
- Fujitsu Ltd. said it plans to sell high-performance computer servers with EDS Corp. in the US.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Internet longs, Medical longs, Retail longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today’s market action was positive. The bears' main arguments have revolved around a collapsing housing market, a "spent-up" consumer and runaway inflation. Over the last couple of days these arguments appear hugely flawed. Beazer Homes (BZH), the major homebuilder most exposed to ARMs and the most heavily shorted, beat quarterly estimates by 16% and raised 2006 guidance. As I predicted in September, the preliminary reading on 3Q unit labor costs showed a 0.5% decline. Two-thirds of inflation comprises unit labor costs. Inflation will not become a problem with muted unit labor cost increases. This number should make the Fed very happy. Finally, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today that October same-store sales rose 4.4%, the most since June. This confirms what I have been saying for some time. With gas futures down almost 50% from September highs and a warmer-than-expected winter so far bringing down natural gas and heating oil prices, consumer spending should remain strong through the holiday season. These three developments are very bullish for stocks and bode well for my prediction of a strong finish to the year.

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