Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Weakness in Homebuilders

Indices
S&P 500 1,219.34 -.28%
DJIA 10,550.29 -.34%
NASDAQ 2,173.78 -.21%
Russell 2000 656.35 -.74%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,180.61 -.36%
S&P Barra Growth 584.16 -.24%
S&P Barra Value 630.52 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.76 -.26%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 733.26 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Technology 510.86 -.19%
Transports 3,960.28 -.48%
Utilities 393.65 -.24%
Put/Call .84 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.11 +17.48%
Volatility(VIX) 13.18 +.61%
ISE Sentiment 176.00 -6.88%
US Dollar 91.38 +.10%
CRB 317.61 +.05%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.40 -.12%
Unleaded Gasoline 154.75 -.55%
Natural Gas 11.73 -1.20%
Heating Oil 176.30 -1.29%
Gold 462.30 +.41%
Base Metals 136.24 -.01%
Copper 183.80 -.51%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.57% -1.06%

Leading Sectors %
Oil Service +.79%
Energy +.74%
Disk Drives +.73%

Lagging Sectors
Papers -1.46%
Gaming -2.30%
Homebuilders -4.72%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Homebuilding longs and Retail longs. I added to my NTES long this morning and to existing shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using a close below $60 as a stop on this position. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 4.2% year-over-year last week even with unseasonably warm weather vs. a 3.8% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 27th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. I continue to believe while consumer sentiment remains depressed, spending remains healthy. There remains little evidence of any widespread consumer slowdown. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.

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