Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Stocks Slightly Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices and Worries Over Slowdown in Housing

Indices
S&P 500 1,229.10 unch.
DJIA 10,657.95 -.27%
NASDAQ 2,182.68 -.19%
Russell 2000 652.00 -.64%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,257.54 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 590.15 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 634.27 -.19%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.59 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 745.03 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 513.21 +.01%
Transports 3,986.30 -.50%
Utilities 391.43 +.84%
Put/Call .83 +1.22%
NYSE Arms .80 -7.86%
Volatility(VIX) 12.53 +2.37%
ISE Sentiment 159.00 -3.05%
US Dollar 92.33 +.26%
CRB 315.67 +.96%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.05 +2.0%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.20 +2.44%
Natural Gas 12.37 +7.07%
Heating Oil 174.00 +3.52%
Gold 479.20 +2.17%
Base Metals 138.82 -.20%
Copper 193.50 +.16%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.48% -1.51%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +5.51%
Oil Service +2.22%
Energy +1.95%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.20%
Networking -1.36%
Broadcasting -1.38%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs, Medical Information System longs and Energy-related shorts. I covered some of my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is slightly negative considering the fall in long-term rates, the rise in energy prices, recent gains and positive economic data. Yahoo! (YHOO) is rising 5.4% today on above-average volume and is within .15 of levels last seen during 2000. This bodes well for Google (GOOG), which is preparing an assault on $400. Google remains my largest long position. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close as lower long-term rates more than offsets profit-taking.

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