Friday, February 24, 2006

Stocks at Session Highs into Final Hour as Bears Fail Again to Capitalize on Morning Weakness

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Semi longs and Networking longs. I exited my IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Natural gas closed floor trading at session lows, down about 5% to $7.05. Recently, oil bulls have been saying to ignore supply/demand fundamentals and focus on potential production disruptions. Natural gas bulls said the same thing before last year's hurricanes. Not only did we get disruptions, they were historic in magnitude. Meanwhile, natural gas supplies are 48% above the five-year average with 16% of production still shut-in. Natural gas has collapsed 55% from highs. Deteriorating oil fundamentals will trump fear over the intermediate-term. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering.

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