Thursday, February 23, 2006

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Falling Energy Prices offset Rising Long-term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Software longs, Networking longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. The AAII % Bulls rose to 43.21% this week from 40.18% the prior week. This reading is now around average levels. The AAII % Bears fell to 28.40% this week from 35.71% the prior week. This reading is now also around average levels. I expect bullish sentiment to rise again next week. These numbers are still not near levels associated with short-term tops. Since the average stock is already up about 6.2% for the year, these numbers bode well for a continuation of recent strength. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and lower energy prices.

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