Thursday, February 02, 2006

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour, Notwithstanding Lower Energy Prices and Strong Retail Data

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Semiconductor longs, Medical Information Systems longs, Computer longs and Software longs. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts this afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are declining and volume is heavy. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. The market's inability to mount any sort of rally today is a negative. Strong retail data, lower energy prices, stable interest rates and no escalation in the Iran situation could not spur gains today. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on lower energy prices, bargain hunting and short-covering.

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