Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- U.S. commodity regulators may require Wall Street banks to regularly disclose their energy futures positions connected to the unregulated swaps market, according to people familiar with the discussions. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has used special authority to collect trade data from firms amid political pressure to ensure that oil markets are not being manipulated. Congress has targeted oil speculators, including those offsetting swap trades, as driving up prices, though no legislation has emerged to deal with the complex energy market.
- Crude oil fell to a five-month low in New York as the Saudi Arabian and Venezuelan oil ministers signaled OPEC will maintain production levels at a meeting in Vienna, and as Hurricane Ike may bypass U.S. oil regions. Brent crude oil for October settlement declined $3.10, or 3 percent, to settle at $100.34 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe, the lowest settlement price since April 1. Futures touched $99.04, the lowest intraday price since March 25. The contract has dropped nine straight days, the longest stretch since 1988. OPEC raised quotas at a meeting in Jakarta in November 1997, just before Asian economies faltered. A combination of increased supply and falling demand sent prices tumbling to $10 a barrel the following year. Ramirez called for stricter compliance with production quotas to counter a potential gain in stockpiles in the first quarter next year. ``History has shown that if inventories rise above normal levels, we will have a price collapse,'' he said. ``The last thing OPEC wants is to see economies crater around the world,'' said Chip Hodge, a managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston, who oversees a $4.5 billion energy-company bond portfolio. ``They want to see strong demand growth.''
- Texas Instruments Inc.(TXN), the second- largest U.S. semiconductor maker, maintained its sales forecast, defying predictions that slowing demand for mobile phones would crimp orders further. The shares jumped as much as 7.4 percent in after-hours trading.
- FedEx Corp.(FDX), the largest air-parcel shipper, said it will report a profit of $1.23 a share for the quarter ended Aug. 31, beating its forecast as fuel costs fell. The stock rose as much as 8.5 percent after regular trading.
- The U.K. economy is contracting for the first time in at least a decade, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research said
.
- Brazil's benchmark stock index fell the most in six months, led by energy and metal producers, after commodity prices slumped and Finance Minister Guido Mantega said the nation's currency needs to weaken further to bolster exports. The ``dominant investment thesis of the past year'' of buying commodities and short-selling financial companies is over, wrote UBS chief economist Larry Hatheway and global equity strategist Jeffrey Palma in a research report, cutting energy producers to ``underweight.'' ``The drop in the trade surplus, the increase in the current account deficit and the scarcity of capital in international markets has decreased the inflows of capital to Brazil,'' Mantega said late yesterday to celebrate the 200th anniversary of the finance ministry.
- Friedman Billings cut its 2009 global steel demand growth forecast 37% to 3.8%.
- Salesforce.com Inc.(CRM) and Fastenal Co. will replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FAST)in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index after shares of the biggest providers of U.S. mortgage financing fell below $1 apiece.
- The Australian dollar dropped below 80 U.S. cents for the first time since August 2007 as prices tumbled for commodities the nation exports. The New Zealand dollar also fell.
- House Minority Leader John Boehner said Representative Charles Rangel should step down as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee until Congress can investigate his ``ethical lapses.'' Rangel, a New York Democrat, failed to disclose more than $75,000 in rental income from his vacation villa in the Dominican Republic to the Clerk of the House of Representatives and tax authorities, his lawyer said last week. The lawyer, Lanny Davis, said Rangel also discovered he received an interest-free loan from the resort developer two years after he bought his three- bedroom casita in 1988.

Wall Street Journal:
- Sen. John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate has shaken up the presidential race, lifting enthusiasm among his once-subdued supporters and boosting the ticket's appeal with women, rural voters and Southerners.
- Retailers have a new tool to turn up the heat on their salespeople: computer programs that dictate which employees should work when, and for how long.

MarketWatch.com:
- Both Meg Whitman the former chief executive of eBay Inc. (EBAY) and Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co.(HPQ) were on the top 20 list as possible vice-presidential candidates for McCain. So did the choice of the Alaska governor hurt the future political careers of these other Republican women? Probably not.
- False bankruptcy report shows risks of online news.

CNBC:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) is “faring reasonably well” in the weak economic environment, CEO Steve Jobs said in an interview. He also addressed recent concerns about his health. “People have finally looked at the Mac and said this is a viable alternative to Windows,” Jobs said. In an off-camera interview, Jobs also blamed recent concerns about his health on unnamed hedge funds that may have been betting that Apple’s stock would fall.
- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan welcomed the recent takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, telling CNBC that the government needed "to remove the ambiguity" over whether US would back up the two mortgage giants.

- In recent weeks, Lehman Brothers(LEH) has received interest from private equity firms for a potential purchase of the troubled brokerage house, but top officials said the company wasn't for sale, people close to the matter say.

USA Today.com:
- Georgia clash makes investors in Russia nervous.
- A drop in mortgage rates that's accelerated since the government said it would take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has raised hopes that more buyers might be drawn into the housing market and help reverse the worst slump in decades. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.88% on Tuesday, according to Bankrate.com.

US News:
- Comcast Corp. and Time Warner Cable Inc., the nation's two largest cable operators, see an opportunity to sign up potentially millions of customers as the nation switches to digital-only broadcasting.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The US Closes the Mobile Innovation Gap. After lagging in wireless for years, the US has caught up with Western Europe and is now trying to take the innovation lead.

Financial Times:
- The Bill Gross-managed Pimco Total Return fund reaped a $1.7bn payday following the US government takeover of home loan giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac.While shareholders in Fannie and Freddie suffered deep losses, the world's biggest bond fund saw its highest ever one-day rise against its benchmark index on Monday, benefiting from the bet made by Mr Gross on mortgage bonds issued by the agencies. Mr Gross had made a big shift out of US Treasuries and corporate bonds over the past year and into agency bonds, betting that the government would support Fannie and Freddie Mac. By May this year, more than 60 per cent of his $132bn fund was in mortgage debt.

Globe and Mail:
- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.(LEH) will roll out plans on Wednesday to shore up the embattled investment bank's balance sheet and face down investor concern that it's running out of options to raise badly needed capital. The fourth-largest securities firm in the United States, whose shares fell by nearly half Tuesday to a decade low, is said to be ironing out a deal to sell or spin off its prized investment management business. Lehman is also looking to raise cash through the sale of devalued mortgage assets. Any such deal would provide Lehman with a new infusion of capital to offset an expected multibillion loss expected to be taken during the third quarter. The company will provide details about its performance during the quarter at 7:30 a.m. (ET), a week ahead of when it originally planned to release results.

South China Morning Post:
- Beijing censors financial websites. First it was fund houses, then brokerages. Now, the cyber world is the target of a Beijing clampdown amid fears that pessimistic comments and bitter complaints about the mainland's slumping stock markets may lead to social disunity....

Inquirer.net:
- Philippine Rice Inventory Up 41% in August.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (ERTS), target $64.
- Downgraded (GFIG) to Sell, target $7.

Oppenheimer:
- Rated (ENZN) Outperform, target $14.

Morgan Keegan:
- Rated (CERN) Outperform.
- Maintained Outperform on (CPSI).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 futures +.33%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.49%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:35 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory drawdown of -3,500,000 barrels versus a -1,898,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -4,500,000 barrels versus a -1,037,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to fall by -2,100,000 barrels versus a -413,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -8.7% versus a 1.4% rise the prior week.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (ZLC) investor day, (PNR) investor day, (COV) analyst meeting, Lehman Financial Services Conference, Morgan Stanley Industrials Conference, Keybanc Basic Materials Conference, BB&T Conference, BMO Capital Back to School Conference, Cowen Clean Energy Conference, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference, Jeffries Tech Conference and Robert W. Baird Small-cap Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and shipping shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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