Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Tuesday Watch


Weekend Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Spanish Savings Banks May Be Concealing Mortgage Losses, CreditSights Says. Spanish savings banks may be hiding losses on home loans by taking non-performing mortgages out of securitized transactions, according to CreditSights Inc. By carrying the bad loans on their own books the so-called cajas sidestep downgrades to their mortgage-backed securities, the independent bond research firm said in a report. The regional lenders helped fuel the nation’s real-estate bubble, which burst after the collapse of the U.S. subprime market. CreditSights follows a sample of 143 Spanish residential mortgage-backed securities collateralized by 136 billion euros ($170 billion) of loans, with about 45 percent originated by cajas. While the savings banks give little information about the state of their loan books, investor reports on the performance of the securitized debt suggest asset quality is weaker than at commercial lenders, CreditSights said. “Caja-originated mortgages are performing much worse than those extended by Spain’s commercial banks,” analysts David Watts, John Raymond and Hana Galetova wrote. By buying mortgages out of the pools “they could have been artificially reducing the level of bad loans in RMBS while simultaneously undermining the quality of the cajas’ own assets,” they wrote.
  • Euro Worst to Come for Most-Accurate Analysts as TD Securities Sees Parity. The most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster says the euro will continue to weaken and may approach parity with the dollar as the European Central Bank buys more government bonds to support the region’s economy. Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, said the euro will depreciate to $1.13 in the third quarter, $1.08 by year-end and may near $1 in 2011 before recovering. Osborne, whose predictions were within 4.1 percent of the mark on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, was echoed by the nine following most-accurate forecasters anticipating a lower euro in the next two quarters.
  • China Property Market Beginning Collapse That May Hit Banks, Rogoff Says. China’s property market is beginning a “collapse” that will hit the nation’s banking system, said Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “You’re starting to see that collapse in property and it’s going to hit the banking system,” said Rogoff, 57, who also serves on the Group of 30, a panel of central bankers, finance officials and academics led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. “They have a lot of tools and some very competent management, but it’s not easy.”
  • Record Profit Upgrades by Analysts Clash With El-Erian's Fizzling Recovery. Analysts are raising earnings estimates for U.S. companies at the fastest rate since at least 2004 just as stocks post the biggest losses in 16 months on concern that the economy will sink back into a recession. Profit for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies will jump 34 percent in 2010, compared with a projected gain of 27 percent on March 29, according to more than 8,000 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The revision, the most during any quarter in at least six years, came as lower-than-forecast home sales, manufacturing and private-sector job growth sent the benchmark gauge for American equities down 16 percent since April 23.
  • Property Bonds Slump Most Since March '09 on Default Risk: Credit Markets. Bonds sold by real-estate companies are performing the worst compared with the rest of the market since March 2009 on concern the slowing economic recovery will cause more defaults. Yield premiums of bonds sold by real-estate investment trusts, shopping-mall owners and office landlords widened 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, in June, more than those on other debt, and continued to rise this month, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Average spreads on real-estate bonds widened to 236 basis points more than benchmark government debt as of July 2, close to the highest spread in six months and up from 223 basis points at the end of May, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Corporates, Real Estate Index shows.
  • Commodities 'Relapse' May Last Through 1st Half of 2011, RBS's Moore Says. Commodities are in the early stages of a “price relapse” that may last through the first half of next year, said Nick Moore, head of commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index tracking 19 raw materials slumped almost 9 percent in the first half of this year. Moore said prices are likely to drop further during the summer months in the Northern hemisphere, traditionally a period of lower demand for commodities. Declining prices for industrial metals, especially aluminum, are likely to trigger output cuts at smelters that are producing at levels close to, or at, a loss, he said. Supply surpluses, high inventories and a slowdown in imports into China, the biggest consumer of all industrial metals, are among factors weighing on prices, Moore said.
  • Crude Oil Drops for Sixth Day on Concern Over Slowing Chinese Recovery. Crude oil dropped below $72 a barrel in New York on concern that the pace of economic recovery is slowing in Europe and China, the world’s second-largest energy consuming nation, signaling global fuel demand may stall. Oil declined for a sixth day as the China Automotive Technology & Research Center said car sales growth slowed in June. European stocks declined for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in a year, as a report showed growth slowed in the region’s services and manufacturing industries. “Crude has come under a bit of pressure because of worries about the global economy,” said Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “Sentiment is negative. Looking at mature markets, it’s pretty bleak. Europe is looking terrible.” Crude oil for August delivery dropped as much as 88 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $71.26 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $71.43 at 10:35 a.m. Sydney time.
  • Nasdaq-100 Index Posts Record Losing Streak. Technology companies are suffering some of the U.S. stock market’s biggest losses, sending the Nasdaq-100 Index to the longest losing streak in its 25-year history. The measure, which gets 63 percent of its value from computer-related companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc., has declined 9.7 percent after slumping 10 consecutive days.
  • China Car Sales Growth Slows to 10.9%, Adding to Signs Economy Is Cooling. China’s auto sales grew at a slower pace in June and a services-industry index slid to a 15-month low, adding to signs that the economy leading the world recovery is cooling. Passenger-car purchases rose 10.9 percent from a year earlier, down from May’s 25 percent gain, the China Automotive Technology & Research Center said today. The services-industry measure fell to 55.6 from 56.4, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said in an e-mailed statement. Today’s data adds to weaker numbers in June for manufacturing indexes and a second measure of the services industry after the government cracked down on property speculation and as the effects of stimulus measures fade. A slowing economy could lead officials to delay returning to pre- crisis policies. “It looks like growth will slow to 8 percent in the fourth quarter of this year with risks on the downside,” said Paul Cavey, an economist with Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong.
  • Emerging-Markets Equities May Decline on Weaker Commodities, JPMorgan Says. The “markers” of a correction in emerging-market stocks will be “large redemptions” in commodity funds and a slump in crude oil prices below the May low of $65 a barrel, analysts led by Adrian Mowat said in a July 4 report. This may occur this quarter, the analysts predicted. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for bulk commodities, has dropped 46 percent in 26 straight sessions, the longest losing streak since August 2005. Crude oil prices have declined 8.9 percent since the start of the year, while copper has tumbled 12 percent this year.
  • RBI May Raise Rates Second Time This Month as Subbarao Has Eye on the Ball. India’s central bank signaled it’s set to raise interest rates again after an unscheduled increase last week, on concern that increased consumer spending and higher fuel prices will stoke inflation. The Reserve Bank of India, led by Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, on July 2 boosted the reverse repurchase and repurchase rates by a quarter point each, to 4 percent and 5.5 percent, and added it will “take further action as warranted.” Subbarao may follow with another quarter point at the bank’s next meeting on July 27, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc said. India is acting ahead of counterparts in Asia from South Korea and Indonesia to the Philippines and Thailand as dangers from the fastest inflation among the Group of 20 nations outweigh risks from Europe’s debt crisis.
  • K1 Hedge Fund Manager Frerichs Committed Suicide, German Prosecutors Say. Dieter Frerichs, a suspect in an international investigation into hedge-fund firm K1 Group, shot and killed himself to avoid arrest, Spanish police and German prosecutors said. Frerichs was a managing director of two British Virgin Island-based K1 investment funds, which were part of a scheme to defraud banks and thousands of private investors of more than 300 million euros ($376 million), said prosecutors in Wuerzburg, Germany. The prosecutors had sought extradition of Frerichs, 72, who was staying in Palma on the Spanish island of Mallorca.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Hedge Fund Lending Draws Scrutiny. Companies that borrow money from hedge funds often see a sharp rise in bets against their shares before the loans or loan amendments are announced, new research shows, suggesting that fund managers or others privy to these deals may be illegally trading ahead of the announcements. The sharp spike contrasts with little change in the short selling of companies that borrow money from banks, according to the research.
  • Consumer Agency's Path Will Be Set by First Chief. More than 400 pages of legislation detail the duties and powers of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that Congress is set to create. But the first director of the powerful new agency will play a critical role in determining how it works.
Bloomberg Businessweek:
CNBC:
  • Fed's Fisher Warns of US Economic Slowdown. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said the timing of monetary tightening will depend on conditions in the U.S. economy, which will slow in the latter half of this year, Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday. Weakness in private consumption may hurt growth and politicians might call for an expansion of monetary easing, although there is little more the Fed can do, Fisher said in an interview with the economic daily. But Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker was more optimistic, telling the Nikkei that private consumption and corporate capital investment will expand enough to keep the U.S. economy on a sustained recovery later this year and through next year. Europe's credit problems were unlikely to severely hurt the U.S. economy, with the impact on real GDP growth likely to be around 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent, he said. With the U.S. recovery sustained, the key would be whether to drop the U.S. central bank's promise to keep interest rates low for an "extended period" late this year, Lacker said.
IBD:
NY Times:
  • Illinois Stops Paying Its Bills, but Can't Stop Digging Hole. Even by the standards of this deficit-ridden state, Illinois’s comptroller, Daniel W. Hynes, faces an ugly balance sheet. Precisely how ugly becomes clear when he beckons you into his office to examine his daily briefing memo. He picks the papers off his desk and points to a figure in red: $5.01 billion. “This is what the state owes right now to schools, rehabilitation centers, child care, the state university — and it’s getting worse every single day,” he says in his downtown office. Mr. Hynes shakes his head. “This is not some esoteric budget issue; we are not paying bills for absolutely essential services,” he says. “That is obscene.” For the last few years, California stood more or less unchallenged as a symbol of the fiscal collapse of states during the recession. Now Illinois has shouldered to the fore, as its dysfunctional political class refuses to pay the state’s bills and refuses to take the painful steps — cuts and tax increases — to close a deficit of at least $12 billion, equal to nearly half the state’s budget. Then there is the spectacularly mismanaged pension system, which is at least 50 percent underfunded and, analysts warn, could push Illinois into insolvency if the economy fails to pick up. States cannot go bankrupt, technically, but signs of fiscal crackup are easy to see.
  • Supply Chain for iPhone Highlights Costs in China. Labor costs, a stronger currency and rising housing prices threaten to raise the cost of making electronics.
CNNMoney:
Business Insider:
Institutional Investor:
Rasmussen Reports:
  • 60% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law. Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide favor repeal of the recently passed health care law, including 49% who Strongly Favor repeal. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% oppose repeal. That figure includes 24% who are Strongly Opposed.
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20 (see trends).
Real Clear Politics:
USA Today:
San Francisco Chronicle:
  • California's Bankruptcies Soar Despite Overhaul. Five years ago, bankruptcies soared to record levels as debt-strapped consumers raced to seek court protection before Congress changed the law to curb what had been considered an epidemic of filings. For a while, filings dropped, but the recession has forced so many people into dire straits that bankruptcies in California are setting new records.
  • Internet Products Ready to Challenge Cable TV. Internet television is fast coming into its own, as high profile players have announced a series of products and initiatives that promise to fundamentally alter the way consumers digest video content.
AP:
  • Dutch Agency Admits Error in UN Climate Report. A Dutch environment agency says the seminal U.N. scientific report on climate change is too generalized and has even more errors than previously noted — including one contributed by the agency itself. The agency acknowledged Monday it is responsible for the erroneous statement that 55 percent of the Netherlands is below sea level, when only 26 percent is. The report should have said 55 percent is prone to flooding. It found a few other mistakes in the 3,000-page U.N. report issued in 2007, and said future reports should have a more robust review process.
Reuters:
  • China June Power Demand Growth Slows Sharply - Paper. China's power consumption growth in June slowed down sharply, as power use in the country's heavy industry trended lower, the official Shanghai Securities News said on Monday. Growth in June power consumption fell significantly, after exceeding 20 percent year on year for the first five months of the year, the paper said, quoting an official familiar with the data, without giving further details. Demand growth in July and August will continue to slow "significantly" while the outlook for electricity supplies during the peak summer season will be "relatively optimistic." Severe summer power shortages are unlikely to happen this year as government policies to curb excessive growth in energy-intensive industries take effect, and as supply is expected to remain stable, Xue Jing, head of the statistics department of the China Electricity Council, was quoted as saying by the paper.
  • Greece Plans No Further Austerity Steps. Greece plans no new austerity measures, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said on Monday, rejecting Greek media speculation that the country would be forced by international lenders to make further cuts."There is no way that there will be new measures, enough with this," he told a news conference.
Financial Times:
  • BP Plc(BP) may replace Chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg and CEO Tony Hayward after its leading Gulf of Mexico well has been capped, citing shareholders. Action to replace the top team at BP may be taken after an investigation into the handling of the spill, citing a UK shareholder. The changes may be combined with an attempt to raise capital through a bond sale, citing a person close to the company. BP will make a statement about its liabilities from the leak on July 27, when it's scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings.
  • China Eyes Shake-Up of Bank Holdings. China is considering stripping its $200bn sovereign wealth fund of the country’s banking stakes, in a move that could free it of some restrictions when it invests in the US. People familiar with the matter said that, under the proposal, China Investment Corporation would no longer be responsible for holding the state’s majority stakes in the country’s biggest banks, such as Bank of China. The move would end CIC’s status as a bank holding company in the eyes of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That would liberate CIC of certain restrictions when it makes investments in the US, where it is believed to be targeting equities, bonds and real estate deals.
  • Investors Fear Rising Risk of US Regional Defaults. Investors are worried that the risk of default for US local governments is growing, amid signs that some regions are facing the same type of difficulty in curbing pension and budget deficits as some eurozone countries. The yield attached to some forms of infrastructure municipal bonds has risen relative to US Treasury bonds because of fears that cash-strapped local governments will struggle to repay these loans. Absolute borrowing costs for regional governments remain relatively low in historical terms because of the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policy. But any swings in municipal yields will be watched closely by investors, since they suggest that the fiscal anxieties about the eurozone could now infect the US. “The risk in the second half of the year is that investor attention switches from Europe to the US,” said Robert Parker, senior adviser at Credit Suisse Securities, who singled out parts of California, as well as towns and cities in Illinois, Michigan and New York state as among the most vulnerable. “You will see investor concern about the viability of those cities and therefore you will see, inevitably, further spread widening in the municipal bond market.” If these market swings are sustained, they could push up borrowing costs for local governments, which, in turn, could exacerbate the squeeze on local authority finances and place more stress on the federal budget. Local municipalities can default and, depending on the state, file for bankruptcy. Should a state come to the brink, which is not expected at this time, many believe that it would be likely to receive federal support. The sharpest swings in the muni market have been seen in the $100bn so-called “Build America bonds” – or Babs – a type of US muni debt that has characteristics similar to corporate bonds. This sector has attracted a fresh investor base, which is now demanding greater compensation for risk.
Telegraph:
  • Spain May Need Financial Rescue, Says Merrill. Spain's debt crisis may force the country to tap the EU-IMF rescue fund over the next two to three months and set off a political storm, according a confidential report by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
  • Europe's 'toothless' Bank Tests Making Matters Worse. RBS and other City institutions have warned that Europe’s stress tests for banks are almost useless and may further damage confidence if they fail to cover the risk of large losses on sovereign defaults by Greece and other Club Med states. “I don’t think it is going to work,” said Jacques Cailloux, Europe economist at RBS. “These stress tests are not rigorous enough. Investors are already pricing in a 50pc “haircut” on some Greek bonds so this has to be included, and perhaps 30pc for Spain.” “We have had a complete failure of communication by the eurozone over recent months with 16 countries all saying different things, and there is a very high chance of another failure this time.” Mr Cailloux, who has issued a “double dip alert” for Europe, said it would be unwise for EU policy-makers to go holiday this summer. Markets are no longer willing to take on exposure to some €2 trillion of household and company debt in Spain, and this gap cannot be plugged for much longer by three-month loans from the European Central Bank. “If by the end of the summer we have not had much more aggressive policy action, we’re back to contagion. This time it is no longer just a peripheral story. It is starting to infect the core eurozone as well, France in particular. I cannot understand why the ECB is not buying Spanish corporate bonds,” he said.
  • North Sea Oil: Hopes Rise of the Biggest Discovery in a Decade. Estimates of reserves in a new North Sea discovery have been raised for the second time in two weeks and the third in a month after further drilling found more oil in an area that had been regarded as a poor prospect. The four-field Catcher complex, 110 miles south-east of Aberdeen, is now estimated to contain up to 350m barrels and with more wells planned could emerge as the biggest North Sea discovery in a decade. Recent discoveries have been in the "tiddler" category with reserves of between 20m-30m barrels.
TimesOnline:
  • BP Plc(BP) is seeking a strategic investor that would help the company thwart takeover bids. BP's advisers approached oil companies and sovereign wealth funds to take a stake of between 5% and 10% for as much as $9.1 billion.
The Guardian:
The Scotsman:
  • Lockerbie Bomber 'may live 20 years.' NEW demands have been made for the Scottish Government to release the full medical reports behind the decision to release the Lockerbie bomber last year. SNP ministers have been urged to come clean on the medical evidence following two conflicting, unconfirmed reports on the health of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi. One report suggested that medical treatment had been withdrawn, which means he has just weeks to live, while another suggested that he might survive for another ten to 20 years.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
  • Germany's largest banks oppose European regulators possible use of extreme assumptions to conduct stress tests for capital adequacy, citing bankers. Extreme criteria might generate distorted results and prompt a new crisis, bankers said at a June 30 meeting with national regulators. The tests would require higher writedowns on German government bonds than on French or even Greek ones.
WirtschaftsWoche:`
  • Insurance companies would survive a breakup of the euro, Axa SA CEO Henri de Castries said. The industry is also preparing for the possibility, even if it is unlikely, the magazine reported de Castries as saying.
De Tijd:
  • A "limited" number of banks in Europe will need state support after stress tests on lenders are completed, Jan Hommen, CEO of ING Groep NV, the biggest Dutch financial-services company, said.
Der Spiegel:
  • The additional stress tests planned by European regulators won't include a scenario in which states default. Such a scenario won't be used because it might suggest regulators have no trust in the euro-area rescue fund, the magazine said. Instead, the tests will assume that prices for credit default swaps for states including Spain and Portugal will rise.
SonntagsZeitung:
  • UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG may be required to double or triple their equity under new rules expected to be announced in late August or early September, citing a participant in discussions being held by an expert commission. The panel, charged with studying the "too-big-to-fail" issue, is also considering moves to ensure that banks' overseas units operate independently of their Swiss headquarters and that they have their own equity.
Nikkei:
  • Samsung Electronics Co. raised its target for this year's global flat-panel television sales. The South Korean company expects to sell between 45 million and 50 million units in 2010, from a previous target of 39 million.
Economic Observer:
  • China's National Development and Reform Commission will stop the approval process for local government bonds intended to fund infrastructure projects as a way to curb local government debt burden, citing an official at the commission.
Securities Times:
  • China's property prices will likely see a correction in about three months, citing Xu Shaoshi, minister of Land and Resources, as saying. The nation's current market sales volumes are falling and prices are stagnant, Xu said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (AAPL), (ARO), (BAC), (XOM), (INTC), (CVH) and (PBR).
  • Made negative comments on (AVB).
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (QCOM), target $45.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.0 +7.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 130.50 -5.0 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June is estimated at 55.0 versus a reading of 55.4 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ABC Consumer Confidence reading could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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