Thursday, April 03, 2014

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Abe Loan Push Impeded by Companies Hoarding Cash: Japan Credit. Japanese banks are the most keen to lend companies money in 17 years. Corporate treasurers don’t need the cash. A Bank of Japan index measuring the prevalence of mid-sized companies saying banks are willing to make loans rose to 19 in March, the highest since June 1997, according to Tankan data. Yet demand for loans from businesses remains below levels before the global financial crisis, other central bank data show.
  • Brazil Lifts Rate to 11% as Food Shock Worsens Price Outlook. Brazil’s central bank extended the world’s longest interest rate tightening cycle, after a food price shock increased chances that inflation will accelerate beyond the target range for a second straight year. The bank’s board, led by its President Alexandre Tombini, today voted unanimously to raise the Selic rate to 11 percent from 10.75 percent, as forecast by all 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Policy makers have raised borrowing costs by 375 basis points, or 3.75 percentage points, in less than a year
  • Prada Forecasts Slowing Sales Growth as Luxury Demand Slides. Prada SpA (1913), the Italian maker of $2,950 leather handbags, forecast slowing sales growth this year amid a maturing Chinese market and soft demand in Europe. Same-store sales will rise at a “low single-digit” pace in the financial year through January 2015, Milan-based Prada said yesterday, less than last year’s 7 percent increase. Growth will be “mid single-digit” the year after, the company said as it reported profit for last year that missed analyst estimates.
  • Asian Stocks Rise on Weaker Yen as Won Slips With Copper. Asian stocks rose, with Japanese shares driving the regional index to its longest rally this year, as the yen traded near a two-month low before a review of euro-area monetary policy and U.S. payrolls data. South Korea’s won snapped a six-day gain as copper and oil fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent by 10:06 a.m. in Tokyo, rising a seventh day in the longest run of gains since December.
  • EPA Failed to Disclose Cancer Risk to People in Studies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency failed to disclose cancer risks to people it exposed to harmful pollutants in research studies, a government watchdog says. The EPA, which warns of dangers from diesel exhaust and tiny particles in its rules to cut pollution, recruited people for tests on those pollutants in 2010 and 2011. Consent forms they were given didn’t mention cancer because the agency considered the risks minimal, the agency’s Office of Inspector General said today in a report. “When justifying a job-killing regulation, EPA argues exposure to particulate matter is deadly, but when they are conducting experiments, they say human exposure studies are not harmful,” Louisiana Republican Senator David Vitter said in a statement, reacting to the report.
Wall Street Journal:
  • One Dead, at Least 14 Injured in Fort Hood Shooting. Military Base Was Site of Mass Shooting in 2009. A gunman opened fire at Texas' Fort Hood military base Wednesday, injuring at least 14 people before apparently shooting himself, officials said. The incident marks the third time there has been a shooting at a U.S. military base in seven months and comes less than five years after another shooting rampage at Fort Hood ended with 13 dead and more than 30 injured. The base, in a press release, said its Directorate of Emergency Services had received an initial report that a suspected shooter had been killed, but was still trying to confirm that. A Defense Department official said the extent of the injuries wasn't immediately clear.
  • Investors Clamor for Risky Debt Offerings. Buyers Grab Securities With Weak Ratings, Tired of Lower Yields on Safer Deals. Risky debt is flying off the shelves. Investors are snapping up low-rated securities backed by companies, home mortgages and car loans at a clip rarely seen since the financial crisis, as fund managers and others tire of paltry yields on safer assets. Buyers poured $3.42 billion into taxable U.S. high-yield mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the first quarter, outpacing the year-earlier period's $1.76 billion total, said fund tracker Lipper, and following a full-year outflow of $4.98 billion in 2013. At the same time, robust demand for the lowest-rated portions of some asset-backed securities has enabled issuers to cut offered yields, investors said.
CNBC:
  • More Americans see middle class status slipping. A sense of belonging to the middle class occupies a cherished place in America. It conjures images of self-sufficient people with stable jobs and pleasant homes working toward prosperity. Yet, nearly five years after the Great Recession ended, more people are coming to the painful realization that they're no longer part of it.
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
Liquidity crunch a catalyst for big China slowdown – analysts The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3222433/Liquidity-crunch-a-catalyst-for-big-China-slowdownanalysts.html?copyrightInfo=true
China Securities Journal:
  • China Shouldn't Scrap National Home Buying Curbs. China shouldn't remove home purchase curbs nationwide as supply still can't meet demand in 1st-tier citites and some 2nd-teir cities, according to a front-page commentary written by reporter Zhang Min.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China 1Q Consumer Prices May Rise 2.3%. Chinese consumer prices may rise 2.3% in 1Q and 2.5% for the full year, according to an article by Zhang Qianrong from State Information Center, a think tank affiliated to the National Development and Reform Commission published today. Producer prices may fall 1.9% in 1Q and .6% for the full year, the article said. China should prepare for deflation risks on production overcapacity and declining demand, Zhang wrote.
Evening Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:
  • Rated (INTC) Overweight, target $30.
  • Rated (FSL) Overweight, target $31.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.5 -.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (PERY)/.03
  • (GBX)/.60
  • (SCHN)/.07
  • (MU)/.75
  • (GPN)/.95
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for February is estimated at -$38.5B versus -$39.1B in January.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 319K versus 311K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2843K versus 2823K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Services PMI for March is estimated at 55.5 versus a prior estimate of 55.5.
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated to rise to 53.5 versus 51.6 in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China HSBC Services PMI, ECB rate decision/Draghi speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, Challenger Job Cuts for March, RBC Consumer Outlook Index for April, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (BGC) investor day and the (CIEN) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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