Thursday, April 10, 2014

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine’s Rust Belt Fears Ruin as Putin Threatens to Choke Trade. For Pavel Cesnek, the future of his sprawling locomotive maker in eastern Ukraine lies in the balance and its fate will be sealed across the Russian border. The head of Luganskteplovoz in the city of Luhansk rules over a communist-era factory and workforce of 6,500 that builds trains primarily for state-run OAO Russian Railways. Like many local businessmen, he fears the pro-European government in Kiev will antagonize the Kremlin into unleashing trade restrictions that could wipe out industry across Ukraine’s rust belt. “Trade ties with Russia are an existential question -- to be or not to be,” said the 40-year-old Czech. “Without Russia, there’d be a total collapse for me, my workers and my owner.”
  • PC Shipments Drop; Corporate Demand Slows Pace of Decline. Worldwide personal-computer shipments dropped in the first quarter as consumers in emerging markets opted for smartphones and tablets, while corporate demand helped slow the pace of the decline, researchers said. Unit sales fell 1.7 percent from a year earlier to 76.6 million, market researcher Gartner Inc. said today in a statement. IDC, another technology-research firm, said quarterly shipments worldwide fell 4.4 percent to 73.4 million. The PC market is on course for a third annual contraction, threatening earnings at companies that rely on sales of the devices, such as Intel Corp. (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard Co
  • Asian Stocks Pare Gains With Aussie as China Trade Drops. Asian stocks pared gains and Australia’s dollar trimmed its advance as Chinese trade figures unexpectedly fell, tempering optimism after the Federal Reserve eased concern about when U.S. rates will rise. Indonesian equities tumbled after elections failed to show a clear winner. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3 percent by 11:41 a.m. in Tokyo, after gaining as much as 0.9 percent before China’s data release.
  • Iron-Ore Bear Market Deepens as Aussie Mines Expand: Commodities. The world is mining more iron ore than steelmakers need. Australia, the largest supplier, sent 504 ships from Port Hedland during the first quarter carrying enough iron-ore exports to build more than 700 Golden Gate Bridges. Shipments jumped 35 percent to the biggest buyer, China, where inventories have ballooned to the highest ever. After companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group expanded capacity to meet surging steel demand, output is climbing just as ChinaĆ¢€™s economy slows to the weakest since 1990. Prices that already are down 14 percent in the past year will slump at least 16 percent further in the second half to less than $100 a metric ton, the lowest level since 2012, according to Credit Suisse Group AG and Standard Chartered Plc.
  • JPMorgan’s(JPM) Dimon Says Cyber Intruders Could Breach Bank Defenses. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is facing “increasingly complex and more dangerous” cyberattacks and some of the intruders may get through, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said. “It is going to be a continual and likely never-ending battle to stay ahead of it -- and, unfortunately, not every battle will be won,” Dimon wrote today in his annual letter to shareholders of the New York-based bank. The company will boost spending on cybersecurity to $250 million this year from $200 million in 2012, with future efforts expanding “exponentially,” he wrote.
Wall Street Journal: 
CNBC: 
  • Dimon warns regulation will push credit costs higher. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, has warned that customers will face more costly credit or be denied certain financial products altogether as a result of tougher regulation. Mr Dimon is famous for clashing with regulators, including Mark Carney, head of the Financial Stability Board and now governor of the Bank of England, as well as slamming capital rules as "anti-American".
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Chevron(CVX) expects first-quarter profit to slip. Chevron Corp, the second-largest oil company in the United States, said on Wednesday it expected first-quarter income to slip because of high currency conversion costs and environmental charges in its mining unit.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.75 -.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 86.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.30%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (PIR)/.41
  • (RAD)/.04
  • (FDO)/.89
  • (TITN)/.20
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 320K versus 326K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2835K versus 2836K prior.
  • Import Price Index for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in February.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for March is estimated at -$36.0B versus -$106.5B in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, China inflation data, BoE rate decision, $13B 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg April US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (COP) analyst meeting, (HST) investor day and the (PSX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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