Bloomberg:
- Scotland Votes as U.K.’s Future Hangs in the Balance. Voters in Scotland will today decide whether to seek independence from the U.K. in a ballot that could spell the end of a three-century-old union that once dominated the world from America to Australia and trigger a new era of self-determination across Europe. Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time in schools, church halls, libraries and community centers across Scotland for the country’s 4.3 million-strong electorate.
- China’s Slowdown Seen Yet to Bottom Even After PBOC Acts. China’s growth trajectory is still pointing down, even after an $81 billion liquidity injection. The People’s Bank of China move to provide 500 billion yuan of three-month funds to the nation’s five largest banks will help overcome any pre-holiday cash crunch, though is unlikely to move the needle on gross domestic product, according to economists at banks including Barclays Plc.
- SouFun’s New China Homebuyer Incentive Sparks Stock Rout. SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN) is posting the longest streak of losses since 2011 in U.S. trading on concern the new price incentives that the Chinese real estate website is offering homebuyers will erode profits. The company’s American depositary receipts dropped 4.6 percent to $9.64 in New York yesterday, pushing the decline over eight straight days of losses to 23 percent.
- China Home Price Drop Spreads to More Cities as Demand Weak. China’s new-home prices fell in all but two cities monitored by the government last month as tight credit prolonged a market downturn even as local home-purchase restrictions were eased. Prices dropped in 68 of the 70 cities in August from July, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today, the most since January 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the data.
- Alibaba Bulls in ‘What, Me Worry?’ Mode as Global Roadshow Ends. “I was surprised how bullish investors were, given the risks for Alibaba,” said Cyrus Mewawalla, a managing director at CM Research in London who wrote a report on Alibaba. “In one sense, this is a dominant company and this is the time for e-commerce. But on the other hand, there have been many warning signals for this company.” “There’s not good governance in China,” said Rob Lutts at Cabot Money Management Inc. in Salem, Mass., whose colleague attended the roadshow in Boston. “Our analyst came back shocked after finding out the moves Jack Ma made moving part of the company into his personal ownership before going public. That’s the kind of thing that makes you say, ‘Wow, really?’” Cabot won’t invest in the IPO, Lutts said.
- Chinese Hackers Infiltrate U.S. Military Contractors. Chinese-backed hackers infiltrated the computer networks of airline, shipping and information technology companies responsible for transporting personnel and weapons for the U.S. military, a Senate investigation found.
- Asian Stocks Outside Japan Fall, Topix Surges After Fed. Asian stocks outside Japan fell after the Federal Reserve raised its estimates for interest rates. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index jumped toward a six-year high on a weaker yen. Hyundai Motor Co. sank 7.6 percent after South Korea’s largest carmaker led a group that bid for real estate with an offer triple the property’s assessed value. Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets 47 percent of sales in North America, rose 2.7 percent. Arrium Ltd. plunged 27 percent in Sydney after raising capital. Sony Corp. dropped 8.1 percent as the Japanese consumer-electronics maker widened its net loss forecast and said it will suspend an annual dividend. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 0.9 percent to 490.73 as of 11:54 a.m. in Hong Kong.
- Fed Plots Cautious Course on Rate Hikes. 'Considerable Time' Phrasing Is Retained as Officials Move to Manage Easy-Money Exit.
- Alibaba IPO Gives Insiders Rare Chance to Sell Early. Many Shares Aren't Bound by 'Lockup' Arrangement.
- Honesty and Ground Troops. When fighting a war, one of the worst sins is gradualism.
White House: No ‘combat role,’ but US troops could ‘forward deploy’ with Iraqis. The White House acknowledged Wednesday that President Obama would consider putting U.S. troops in "forward-deployed positions" to advise Iraqi forces in the fight against the Islamic State -- even while insisting U.S. troops would not be sent back into a "combat role" in Iraq.
- JPY Plunges To 6-Year Lows, Nikkei Tops 16,000 As Japanese Deficit Runs 41st Month In A Row. (graph)
- Goldman's Former Head Of Housing Research Predicts Housing Crash, Recession Within Three Years. (graph)
- Got (Record-High-Priced) Milk? (graph)
Reuters:
- Japan manufacturers' mood falls most in 2 yrs, weak bounce seen -Reuters Tankan. Confidence at Japanese manufacturers fell the most in nearly two years in September as a tax increase hit the economy harder than expected, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting further difficulty for the struggling recovery. The worsening sentiment in the monthly Reuters Tankan, with only a feeble improvement forecast for December, bodes ill for the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey, which had been forecast to rebound in the third quarter. Service-sector sentiment edged up but was forecast to decline again. The sentiment index for manufacturers fell to 10 in September from 20 in August and down from 19 in June.
- Dollar rallies as markets latch onto 'hawkish' Fed projections. The dollar rose to its highest in over four years against a basket of currencies on Thursday after the Federal Reserve's guidance on interest rates highlighted the diverging pathways between the United States and other rich nations. The dollar index surged to 84.814, reaching a high not seen since July 2010, and bringing into view its 2010 peak of 88.708. It last traded at 84.782.
- Risky market bets putting global economy in jeopardy, warns IMF. IMF warns investors could be hit by geopolitical tensions or a shift in US interest rate policy. The global economy faces a growing risk from big financial market bets that could quickly unravel if investors get spooked by geopolitical tensions or a shift in US interest rate policy, the International Monetary Fund has said. The IMF said in a report it still expects economic growth to pick up in the second half of 2014 after a rough start to the year. But it also warned that financial market indicators suggested investor bets funded with borrowed money looked "excessive" and that markets could quickly deflate if there were surprises in US monetary policy or the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. As the IMF put it in its technical language: "New downside risks associated with geopolitical tensions and increasing risk taking are arising."
- DIHK Sees Risk of European Economic Fragmentation. Europe risks transforming itself into a region of autonomous special economic zones, Volker Treier, head of intl economy at Germany's DIHK commerce and industry chamber says in interview. Says no one can desire that other regions, for example in Spain, take Scotland as a model and abet the division of EU states.
- China Should Prevent Big Rises in Leverage Ratio. China may face increased macro economic and financial risks if its already-high leverage ratio rises more, PBOC economist Ma Jun said in a commentary. Over-easing of monetary policy is likely to increase leverage for local government financing vehicle and the real estate sector, Ma writes. China should set more credible and clear control target and emphasize low inflation in its monetary policy, Ma writes.
- None of note
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.50 -2.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.50 -1.0 basis point.
- FTSE-100 futures +.12%.
- S&P 500 futures +.05%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (IHS)/1.44
- (RAD)/.06
- (CAG)/.35
- (RHT)/.38
- (ORCL)/.64
- (TIBX)/.18
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 305K versus 315K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2466K versus 2487K prior.
- Housing Starts for August are estimated to fall to 1037K versus 1093K in July.
- Building Permits for August are estimated to fall to 1040K versus 1052K in July.
- Philly Fed for September is estimated to fall to 23.0 versus 28.0 in August.
- Household Change in Net Worth for 2Q.
- None of note
- The Fed's Fisher speaking, Scotland Independence vote, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for September, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (NKE) general meeting, (PRU) investor day and the (MYL) investor day could also impact trading today.
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