Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Traders Don't See Fed Moving Until at Least March, Futures Show. The bond market is pushing back expectations for the first Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in almost a decade until March at the earliest. Traders pared bets on a 2015 hike and subsequent increases after the U.S. reported surprisingly weak labor data for September. The probability the futures market assigns for a boost at or before the Fed’s March meeting is now slightly better than a coin flip, at 53 percent, down from 66 percent Thursday. Traders see a 32 percent likelihood that the Fed raises rates by its December meeting, down from almost 60 percent a month ago, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The probability of an increase by January is 40 percent, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff.  

• Macau Casinos Jump on Report China May Give Economic Support. Macau casino operators spiked after monthly gaming revenue in the world’s largest gambling hub fell in line with forecasts, and on reports China may move to support the city’s economy. Gross gaming revenue in Macau fell by a third in September, a 16th straight month of decline. 

• Merkel Approval Rating Drops to Four-Year Low on Refugee Crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s approval rating dropped to the lowest in almost four years in a monthly poll that suggests voters’ welcome for hundreds of thousands of refugees is exhausted. The share of Germans who are satisfied with Merkel’s handling of her job fell 9 percentage points to 54 percent in the Infratest Dimap poll, the lowest since December 2011, broadcaster ARD said in a statement Friday. Backing for Horst Seehofer, the Bavarian state premier who has called Merkel’s refugee policy a “mistake,” gained 11 points to 39 percent. 

• European Stocks Rebound Amid Speculation of U.S. Rate Rise Delay. In the end, European stocks rebounded as bad news for the U.S. economy fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.5 percent to 347.86 at the close of trading in London.

• Russian Oil Output Reaches Post-Soviet Record in September. Russian oil output rose to a post-Soviet record last month as producers took advantage of the weak ruble to push ahead with drilling. The nation’s production of crude and condensate climbed to 10.74 million barrels a day, 1 percent more than a year earlier and topping a record set in June, according to data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. Soviet-era production peaked at 11.48 million barrels a day in 1987, according to BP Plc. The increase comes at a time when Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are defending market share rather than cutting production amid a global output glut. Russia, which gets about half of its budget income from oil and gas revenues, is maintaining its own supplies in the face of Brent crude prices that fell 50 percent in the past year.

• Oil Drillers Bet Choking Wells Will Keep Shale From Going Bust. Encana Corp. wants to ensure the shale-oil boom keeps booming. The Canadian producer is among a growing number of companies that are restricting initial output -- a process known as choking back -- in basins from North Dakota to Texas. They’re conceding huge up-front gushers of crude in exchange for smaller production declines over time so that the wells ultimately generate more oil. The strategy sacrifices one of the biggest benefits from shale. The early gushers paid back investments fast, allowing companies to pour capital into new projects. Instead, Encana and others envision a future with a more stable flow from wells, so that they don’t always have to keep drilling simply to maintain output. “You’re losing a barrel today to get two or three barrels tomorrow,” said Allen Gilmer, chief executive officer of consultant Drilling Info Inc. in Austin. “It’s not a zero-sum game.” 

• Bank Stocks Tumble as Jobs Report Threatens 2015 Rate Hike. Bank stocks tumbled as the U.S. jobs report fell short of forecasts and bond traders pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike until next year. All 10 of the largest U.S. lenders dropped at least 2.3 percent at 11:22 a.m. in New York, led by Bank of America’s 3.8 percent drop. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index, the worst-performing industry in the broader S&P 500, fell as much as 3.1 percent to the lowest level since May 2014.

• Economists Can't Find the Silver Lining in Today's Jobs Report. Friday's job figures contain few positives.

• Hillary Clinton Lets Big Banks Off the Hook for Financial Crisis. Hillary Clinton's explanation of what caused the 2008 financial crisis contains a notable omission. Throughout the 2016 presidential primary campaign, Clinton has taken a markedly less critical view of large financial institutions like Citigroup Inc. than Democrats like Elizabeth Warren and presidential rival Bernie Sanders. Instead, Clinton has placed the blame on "shadow banking," a term she has used to describe hedge funds and high-frequency traders. “Her comments on their face are wrong,” said Christopher Whalen, senior managing director at Kroll Bond Rating Agency and author of Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream. “It is incorrect to blame the crisis on shadow banks. You can’t really differentiate between what they were doing and what Citi was doing.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Hilsenrath’s Take: Soft Jobs Numbers Likely to Stay Fed’s Hand in October. Still, Fed officials may be reluctant to drop their plan to raise interest rates this year.

• ‘Something We Should Politicize’. Candor from the president and Mrs. Clinton. “This is something we should politicize,” President Obama said yesterday. “This” referred to the deaths, a few hours earlier, of nine innocent people, murdered by an obviously disturbed young man at Umpqua Community College in Roseburg, Ore.

Fox News:

• 'Filled with hate': Witnesses say Oregon gunman targeted Christians in community college mass murder. (video)

CNBC:

• Cashin: This is not going to be a pleasant Christmas. (video)

• Jobs miss is the 'worst case scenario' for market.

Zero Hedge:

• Payrolls Disaster: Only 142K Jobs Added In September With Zero Wage Growth; August Revised Much Lower. (graph)

• The Feudal "Recovery" Continues: 21,000 Waiters Added; 9,000 Manufacturing Workers Lost. (graph)

• What If Expectations Of Our Central Bankers Are Simply Too High?

• Meet Oregon School Shooter Chris Harper-Mercer: "You're Going To See God In Just About One Second".

• Yen-Driven Buying-Panic Lifts Stocks Green Amid "The Most Aggresssive Buying I Have Ever Seen". (graph)

• Newly Published Clinton Email Reveals How Government Manipulates Media.

• Silver Spikes To Six-Week Highs On Heavy Volume - Biggest Jump Since Dec 2014. (graph)

• Goldman's NFP Post-Mortem: A December Rate Hike Is Now A "Close Call".

• Treasury Yields Are Crashing. (graph)

• The US Has Added Three Times More Foreign-Born Workers Than Native-Born Since December 2007. (graph)

• US Factory Orders Flash Recession Warning - Drop YoY For 10th Month In A Row. (graph)

• US Financials' Default Risk Spikes To 2-Year High. (graph)

• The Dangerous Illusion That Risk Can Be Offloaded Onto Others.

• Participation Rate Crashes To October 1977 Level: Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 579,000 To Record 94.6 Million. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• The new 'Yelp for people' app is a psychologist's nightmare.

• The Secret Service's latest scandal is beyond disturbing.

• Asia's 'recession barometer' is flashing.

• US Education Secretary Arne Duncan is suddenly stepping down.

• China's collapsing housing market is a massive threat to the economy.

Washington Post:

• Oregon shooter said to have singled out Christians for killing in ‘horrific act of cowardice’. Investigators including cyber-experts and hate crime specialists peered Friday into the life of a 26-year-old gunman whose massacre across an Oregon campus may have been driven by religious rage and a fascination with the twisted notoriety of high-profile killers. What is known so far about the attacker — identified by a U.S. law enforcement official as Chris Harper Mercer — appear only as loose strands that suggested an interest in firearms and the infamy gained by mass shooters. Witnesses also said he seemed to seek specific revenge against Christians, and police examined Web posts that hinted of wider antipathy toward organized faith. In one classroom, he appeared to single out Christian students for killing, according to witness Anastasia Boylan. “He said, ‘Good, because you’re a Christian, you’re going to see God in just about one second,'” Boylan’s father, Stacy, told CNN, relaying his daughter’s account while she underwent surgery to treat a gunshot to her spine. “And then he shot and killed them.” Another account came from Autumn Vicari, who described to NBC News what her brother J.J. witnessed in the room where the shootings occurred. According to NBC: “Vicari said at one point the shooter told people to stand up before asking whether they were Christian or not. Vicari’s brother told her that anyone who responded ‘yes’ was shot in the head. If they said ‘other’ or didn’t answer, they were shot elsewhere in the body, usually the leg.”

Telegraph: 

• IMF's mass debt relief call for Greece set to be rejected by Europe. Fund's bold recommendations for huge restructuring remain sticking poing in bail-out talks.