Friday, November 06, 2015

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate Hike Fears, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Markets Currency Worries, Utility/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.74 -2.06%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.25 -.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.81 +1.60%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.17 -1.94%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -9.62%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 -1.90%
  • NYSE Arms .81 -28.61
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.29 +1.55%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,125.0 +.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.25 -.71%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.45 +4.24%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.79 +2.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 315.74 +2.85%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.41 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 29.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.25 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.17 -.98%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 144.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $48.21/Metric Tonne -1.03%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +8.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.1 -5.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 +4.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 3.51 n/a
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +185 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -143 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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