Thursday, July 02, 2015

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.95%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -1.33% 2) Alt Energy -1.15% 3) Steel -1.02%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • WAL, CNC, NI, GNRC, CTSH, GTS, CPHD, AHS, ISCA, BAX, WU, GRUB, VTAE, AVAV, DMRC, AZZ, HUM, GCI, ZGNX, LC, WPPGY, UBSI, MNTA, FSTR, EGRX, STL, HW, CPHD, VSLR and ZGNX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DRI 2) SCHW 3) GREK 4) LEN 5) XME
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RF 2) UAL 3) HEES 4) FFIV 5) ICON
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.03%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +1.25% 2) HMOs +1.22% 3) Gold & Silver +1.08%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AGTC, XOOM, HNT, MDCO, ENR, PRGS, GTLS, AMBC and BP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EPD 2) FIT 3) CLR 4) IMMU 5) LC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ENR 2) HNT 3) T 4) OSK 5) TE
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Europe Rebuffs Greek Overture as Poll Shows Voters Leaning ‘Yes’. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his creditors sparred heading into Sunday’s referendum on austerity as a poll suggested voters are inclined to accept deeper cuts. As rationing of pensions began in the first week of capital controls, a poll showed a narrow majority going against the government’s wishes in order to keep the euro. A late compromise bid by Tsipras, who’s urging citizens to vote “no,” was roundly quashed by the rest of the euro region, meaning negotiations will have to wait until after the plebiscite.
  • Greece Pushes Draghi’s Euro Nearer Reverse as Solidarity Fades. “The idea was to create an irrevocable monetary union that once you’re in, it’s forever,” said Charles Wyplosz, professor of economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. “The permanence is very much in doubt, especially because you really don’t have a lender of last resort. Under certain circumstances, the central bank can drop you.” 
  • For China’s Hottest Stocks, a 77% Gain in Four Days Is Bad News. In most stock markets, a 77 percent return in four days would leave investors feeling ecstatic. In China, it’s just the opposite -- at least when it comes to initial public offerings. That four-day advance in Guotai Junan Securities Co., which completed China’s biggest IPO in five years last month, is the worst start among 190 initial share sales on mainland bourses this year. Every other one recorded a gain at or near the 92 percent maximum allowed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While regulatory pressure on companies to keep their IPO prices low has led to instant gains once the shares start trading, returns are coming under pressure from a flood of new equity and a tumble in the Shanghai Composite Index. The Bloomberg China IPO Index has dropped 25 percent since the end of May, even as authorities considered a suspension of new deals to ease supply concerns. “Insanity has a limit,” said Francis Lun, the chief executive officer at Geo Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “If Guotai keeps rising like a penny stock, it will soon become the biggest company in the world, bigger than Apple.”
  • Egypt on War Footing as Sinai Attack Follows Cairo Assassination. Egypt’s army suffered its deadliest blow in years of fighting Islamist militants in the Sinai peninsula, losing dozens of soldiers in a wave of attacks as authorities vowed to respond with more firepower and harsher laws. More than 60 security personnel and six civilians were killed on Wednesday by assailants who used rockets and car bombs, according to the security directorate in north Sinai, which borders Israel and the Gaza Strip. The army command in Cairo gave a confirmed death toll of 17 soldiers in a televised statement, and said more than 100 of the jihadists were killed as F16 jets and Apache helicopters were deployed in pursuit. A group linked to Islamic State claimed responsibility.
  • Chinese Stocks Slump as Support Steps Fail to Stem Rout. Chinese stocks slumped, with a gauge of volatility jumping to its highest level since 2008, as margin traders unwound debt and the regulator moved to support shares. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 2.7 percent to 3,946.09 at 10:20 a.m., dragged down by industrial and utility shares.
  • Asian Stocks Rise for Third Day as Yen Weakness Buoys Japan. Asian stocks rose for a third day, following gains in Europe and America, with a weaker yen buoying equities in Tokyo as investors awaited developments in Greece and U.S. jobs data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 146.69 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index advanced 1 percent after the yen slid 0.5 percent Wednesday.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Asia’s Rich Show Love for Junk Bonds. Private-bank clients in region have loaded up on high-yield debt, a market dominated by Chinese property firms. Asia’s wealthy investors have bought nearly $17 billion of high-yield bonds in the past three years, more than double what they purchased in the previous three years despite rising risks among some of the biggest issuers. High-yield-bond issuance has soared in Asia since the start of 2013, and rich individual...
  • Free Raises for Everyone. Obama’s plan to help Democrats stay overtime in Washington. If after more than six years as President the economy hasn’t increased take-home pay, here’s an idea: Declare that millions of Americans get a raise by government fiat.
Fox News:
  • State Dept. withholds ‘classified’ info from Clinton emails, despite claim of 'no classified material'. (video) A State Department spokesman said Wednesday that details from 25 emails were deemed classified and withheld from the 3,000-page trove of Hillary Clinton documents released overnight -- despite the former secretary of state claiming she never sent classified material on her personal email. State Department spokesman John Kirby acknowledged at a briefing that details from the 25 emails are now considered "classified." The messages were released, with those portions redacted. However, Clinton declared in March that she "did not email any classified material to anyone" on her account.
MarketWatch.com:
  • Why are these ‘government’ heads getting raises of 567%? Did you hear the heads of the mortgage giants are getting a raise? Yep. They’ll be earning about six times more than they did last year. Hey, that’s more than good enough for government work, right? In an earlier era, this never would have happened. Say, last year, for instance.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
  • Economists agree...A huge tax hike is coming. As for financial assets, the best way to protect those gains is simply to sell them – both before bubbles burst, and before capital gains rates get increased to ordinary tax rates.
Financial Times:
  • Tsipras urges Greeks to defy creditors’ ‘blackmail’. Greece’s prime minister accused Europe’s leaders of attempting to “blackmail” Greek voters, just hours after apparently holding out an olive branch to the country’s creditors by accepting most of the terms of the economic reform plan they had tabled last weekend.
Telegraph:
China Daily:
  • China's Shenzhen Home Prices Reach Record Levels. New home prices rose 6.58% in June vs. month earlier, citing survey by China Index Academy. Prices for existing houses rose 8.59% in June m/m, 19.12% y/y, according to the report.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Unlikely to Cut Interest Rate in 2H. China isn't likely to cut rates in 2H and may only do so if inflation is lower than 1.5% this year, Chen Bingcai, researcher at Chinese Academy of Governance, writes in a commentary.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of Note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 -.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ISCA)/.40
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated to fall to 233K versus 280K in May.
  • The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated to fall to 5.4% versus 5.5% in May.
  • Average Hourly Earnings for June are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in May.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 270K versus 271K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2236K versus 2247K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for May are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.4%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia Retail Sales report, ISM New York for June, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (DAL) June Traffic report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Greek Deal Hopes, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Bargain-Hunting, Gaming/Insurance Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.18 -5.76%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.26 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.96 -1.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.08 -2.88%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -30.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 +2.68%
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +5.01% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.11 -1.32%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,213.0 +7.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.48 -1.84%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.15 -8.71%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.72 -1.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 307.42 -.37%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.69 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 27.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 173.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.20/Metric Tonne -.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.10 +4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.9 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.40 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +198 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -220 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -48 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/medical/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Greek Pension Rationing Begins; Poll Shows Tsipras Backed. (video) It’s a day of fresh indignities for the people of Greece. About a third of the nation’s depleted banks cracked open their doors after being closed for three days. But all they did was ration pension payments, hours after the country became the first advanced economy to miss a payment to the International Monetary Fund and its bailout program expired. While Greek retirees receive a fraction of what they’re due, European officials resume efforts to prevent the economy from cratering after more than five years of crisis-fighting. Finance ministers weigh a new aid bid from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and European Central Bank policy makers discuss whether to maintain their emergency lifeline. “People are just completely fed up,” said Andrea Montanino, a former IMF executive board member who now heads the global economics program at the Atlantic Council in Washington. The first poll before a snap referendum Sunday indicated most people back Tsipras. The survey, in Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper, showed 54 percent would vote “no” -- rejecting austerity in exchange for aid -- and 33 percent would vote “yes” -- accepting austerity as the price of staying in the euro. The poll was conducted by ProRata, which surveyed 1,200 people June 28-29 with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
  • Tsipras Tells Voters Rejecting Austerity Will Yield Better Deal. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called on voters to reject austerity measures in Sunday’s referendum, hardening a standoff with creditors hours after making a renewed bid for aid as the nation sinks deeper into financial misery. On a third day of capital controls rationing pensions that also marked the expiry of Greece’s bailout, the government in Athens said it was willing to accept the latest offer from creditors as a basis for compromise. The looming vote remains a stumbling block, along with disagreements over pensions, spending and taxes, and Tsipras was defiant on the outcome. “Come Monday, the Greek government will be at the negotiating table after the referendum, with better terms for the Greek people,” Tsipras said in a Twitter message posted as he spoke on national television. “A popular verdict is much stronger than the will of a government.”
  • Creditors Don't Trust Greece's Latest Plan. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece has spent the last 24 hours trying to re-engage the creditors he had previously defied in unusually bitter and acrimonious negotiations. There are limited reasons to be optimistic he will be successful. 
  • ECB Founder Issing Says Idea of Irreversible Euro Was ‘Illusion’. Trust between euro-area countries has deteriorated so badly that the idea that the single currency can’t be undone is now dead, former European Central Bank Executive Board member Otmar Issing said. “Mutual trust is certainly not there any more, and it will be very difficult to restore,” Issing, 79, said in an interview. “The idea -- you might now say the illusion -- was and is that having joined the euro, it is irreversible.”
  • Macau’s Casino Revenue Slumps to Lowest Level in Over Four Years. Macau casino revenue fell to the lowest in more than four years amid China’s slowing economy and a graft crackdown that deterred high rollers. A surprise easing of Chinese travel restrictions to the city may bring some relief. Gross gaming revenue in June fell 36.2 percent to 17.4 billion patacas ($2.2 billion), according to data released by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. That beat the median estimate of a 38.3 percent drop from six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The government this week said June revenue is expected at between 16 billion to 16.5 billion patacas.
  • Islamist Blitz in Sinai Kills 50 as Egypt Sends Fighter Jets. Islamists in Sinai killed at least 50 members of Egypt’s security forces and the army deployed F16 fighters and Apache helicopters to pursue them, as authorities struggle to suppress a growing militant insurgency. A group affiliated with Islamic State claimed responsibility for the wave of attacks with rockets and car bombs, which came a day after President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi vowed to step up efforts to suppress the militants. About 50 soldiers and police and a similar number of jihadists have been killed, a security official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the media. “We’re in a real state of war,” Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab said at the weekly cabinet meeting.
  • Emerging Market ETFs Suffer Biggest Net Outflows Since January. Investors pulled money out of U.S. exchange traded funds that invest in emerging markets last month at the fastest pace since January, led by $1.1 billion of outflows from stock funds. Redemptions from emerging-market ETFs that invest in stocks and bonds across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $896.2 million, compared with inflows of $3.3 billion in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Scandal That Just Won’t Go Away Portends More Brazil Bond Losses. The staying power of an ever-widening corruption scandal in Brazil has bond investors bracing for more pain. After speculation Brazil had put the worst of a graft probe behind it, reports in the past week have moved the affair front and center again. Veja magazine reported Saturday a state witness alleged politicians with ties to President Dilma Rousseff’s ruling party were involved in the kickback scheme at the state oil company. Two days earlier, a separate report by Folha de S. Paulo newspaper fueled concern her predecessor could be arrested as part of the investigation only to be proved later unfounded.
  • Euro Falls as Greek Deal Optimism Tempered by Creditor Pushback. The euro fell as Greek attempts to reopen negotiations with creditors faced pushback, extending weeks of mixed signals about the nation’s future in the currency bloc. The 19-nation currency fell versus most of its major peers as German Chancellor Angela Merkel refused to engage until after Greece’s July 5 referendum. The euro weakened against the dollar for a second day as a private payrolls report showed American companies boosted employment in June, supporting Federal Reserve moves to raise rates this year as Europe maintains unprecedented stimulus. The euro dropped 0.5 percent to $1.1087 as of 11:27 a.m. New York time and was little changed at 136.38 yen. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback versus 10 of its major peers, rose 0.5 percent to 1186.78.
  • Most Emerging Stocks Fall as China Growth Concern. Emerging-market stocks slumped for the fourth time in five days as data showing Chinese manufacturing remained sluggish in June outweighed optimism that Greece is moving closer to a compromise over its bailout program. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.2 percent to 970 at 2:13 p.m. in New York. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 5 percent after rallying the most since 2009 on Tuesday. The Ibovespa retreated 0.6 percent in Sao Paulo as oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA sank with crude.
  • European Stocks Advance Amid Optimism of Greek Deal Compromise. European stocks advanced amid investor optimism that Greece and its creditors can work out a bailout deal and keep the Mediterranean nation in the euro area. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.5 percent to 387.07 at the close of trading. It earlier climbed as much as 2.2 percent after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled he’s prepared to compromise on the starting point for talks. Shares trimmed gains after he reiterated his call for voters to reject austerity measures in Sunday’s referendum.
  • Iraq’s Oil Exports Climb to Record With Output at All-Time High. Iraq’s oil exports climbed to a record in June as the drive for market share intensified with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosting output. Overseas shipments by OPEC’s second-biggest producer averaged 3.187 million barrels a day in June, based on monthly shipments of 95.612 million barrels, according to Asim Jihad, an Oil Ministry spokesman. Exports rose 1.3 percent from 3.145 million barrels a day in May.
  • Puerto Rico at Precipice Piles on Muni Market Hampered by Crises. Illinois and New Jersey have dragged down the municipal-bond market this year as the states wrestled with growing pension-fund bills. Puerto Rico is depressing it even more. Even before Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said this week that the junk-rated island can’t afford to pay its debts, municipal bonds had returned about nothing in 2015 as investors dumped securities of the cash-strapped states and the Federal Reserve moved toward raising interest rates for the first time in nine years.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • 74 children executed by ISIS for 'crimes' that include refusal to fast, report says. The blood-soaked executioners of ISIS have spared neither women nor children since the jihadist army established its caliphate a year ago, putting an estimated 74 kids and even more women to death for such offenses as practicing “magic” and refusing to fast during Ramadan. A total of 3,027 people have been executed by ISIS since it declared itself a state under strict Islamic law in Syria and Iraq last June, according to a new report by the UK-based group, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
CNBC: 
  • Here's the risk everyone is underestimating: Trader. (video) As investors obsess over every headline from Greece, it's the debt crisis in Puerto Rico that could actually pose a greater risk to U.S. stocks, says trader Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management
  • Survey says: 35 percent of Americans would expatriate. (video) As the Fourth of July weekend looms and Americans prep their grills and ready their fireworks, some citizens are packing their bags. A recent online poll of more than 2,000 adults by TransferWise, a peer-to-peer money transfer service based in the United Kingdom, revealed that 35 percent of American-born residents and emigrants would consider leaving the United States to live in another country. This percentage greatly increases for those age 18 to 34. More than half of millennials, a whopping 55 percent, said that they would consider leaving the U.S. for foreign shores.
  • Investor: Will Greece be a 'Lehman moment' for markets? She notes that left-wing politicians elsewhere in Europe, especially Spain and Portugal, will get a boost if European creditors bend to Greek demands. "I think the gamble they are likely to take is a tough stance on Greece in order to halt the 'austerity revolt' from the other weak links of the euro zone," Vassalou wrote.
ZeroHedge:
CNN:
  • China's biggest stock market just lost 5% in a single hour. (video) The Shanghai Composite spent much of the day in positive territory, before plummeting roughly 5% in the final hour of trading. The benchmark index closed 5.2% lower on the day, while the smaller Shenzhen Composite shed 4.8%.
Financial Times: 
  • Reversal of China’s stock market rally breeds anger and regret. At a stock trading hall for retail investors near People’s Square in Shanghai on Wednesday, the mood is glum. Shenyin Wanguo, like other Chinese brokerages, maintains its hall for investors to hang around, make a few trades and share tips. Among the mostly elderly investors there, zest for market speculation goes hand-in-hand with the socialist conviction that the government can and should protect them from risk.
Telegraph: 
WPBOnline:
  • 'Oxi' (No) Leads in Polls Before Sunday Vote in Greece. According to an opinion poll conducted for Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper between Saturday and Tuesday, 54% of surveyed Greeks are planning to vote "no" with 33% planning to vote "yes". The poll conducted by the ProRata institute also showed that 86% of those surveyed planned to vote on Sunday.
    According to an opinion poll conducted for Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper between Saturday and Tuesday, 54% of surveyed Greeks are planning to vote "no" with33% planning to vote "yes."
    The poll conducted by the ProRata institute also showed that 86% of those surveyed planned to vote on Sunday.
    - See more at: http://wbponline.com/Articles/View/49857/oxi-no-leads-in-polls-before-sunday-vote-in-greece#sthash.nuL4mSxl.dpuf
    'Oxi' (No) Leads in Polls Before Sunday Vote in Greece - See more at: http://wbponline.com/Articles/View/49857/oxi-no-leads-in-polls-before-sunday-vote-in-greece#sthash.nuL4mSxl.dpuf